Abstract:Risk society has gradually become an important social form in the global face, in which technical risk is the main risk. In order to prevent the "organized irresponsibility" of technology risks, it is necessary to systematically predict the development trend and risks of technology through "organized technology foresight", gather consensus from all walks of life, and strengthen planning guidance and forward-looking governance by supporting policy formulation. Under the situation of risk society, technology foresight needs to predict the potential risks caused by various stages of technology research and development and innovation on the basis of the maximum benefit of technology evaluation, the maximum consensus of technology decision-making and the optimal path of technology realization, and the risk management system of forward-looking evaluation, so as to play the functions of decision-making consultation to support emerging and potential risk technologies, training industrial technology innovation path, improving public risk awareness and participating in technology decision-making ability, there is a need for cross-sectoral leadership groups, a public-oriented foresight approach and the participation of diverse groups. Looking to the future, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the effective methods and organizational processes of public participation in technology foresight, social foresight and the theoretical and methodological research of international technology foresight.

Key words:technology foresight; risk society; technology risk; technology decision; consensus

Abstract: The risk society has gradually become an important social form now and Technical Risk is the main risk, and show the characteristics of "organized irresponsibility". Through "Organized Technology Foresight", it can consolidate the consensus of all sectors of society widely based on the opinions of scientific and technological experts, and develop the positive externalities of technology through foresight and forward-looking governance, and then promote the comprehensive and harmonious development of the economy and society. Through the analysis of the concept of technology risk and the practice of technology foresight in various countries, the technology foresight under the risk society scenario should be based on the maximum benefit of technology evaluation, the maximum consensus of technology decision-making, and the optimal path of technology realization, and the analysis is carried out from three aspects: the technology supply side, the social demand side and the basic capability side. To predict the potential risks caused by the various stages of technology development and prospectively evaluate the deficiencies of the risk management system. In order to support the decision-making consultation about the risk of emerging and potential technology, discipline the path of industrial technology innovation, improve public risk awareness and participate in technological decision-making capabilities. According to the above analysis framework, in the practice of technology foresight, firstly, cross-government departments or third-party agencies need to take the lead, break the function limitations of departments, and fully coordinate the participation of experts from multiple disciplines, fields and departments; secondly, it must be based on the Delphi method and then introduce effective scenario analysis, consensus meetings or social surveys to promote the understanding of technical risks and participation in technical decision-making by all sectors of society; thirdly, on the basis of participation of scientific and technological experts, fully investigate scientific and technical community, regional organizations, science fiction writers, and the public and other diverse subjects opinions form the biggest consensus on technical decision-making. Looking forward to the future, in order to give full play to the effectiveness and role of technology foresight to cope with the global risks. Firstly, it is necessary to explore effective methods and procedures for organizing public participation in technology foresight, especially how to improve the breadth and representation of the public when there are differences in the scientific quality of the public, this will affect the key part of the consensus. Secondly, we must explore international technology foresight, promote cross-regional and cross-border government departments, and experts from all walks of life exchanges and dialogues on future technology and social vision, and lay the foundation for promoting international technology governance policy formulation. The third is that with the close integration of technology and society, technology has become an important force in promoting social development and shaping social patterns. It is necessary to promote the transformation of technology foresight to social foresight, and conduct research on theories and methods of social foresight to support future-oriented the study. 

Keyword：technology foresight; risk society; technology risk; technology decision; consensus